Shy Voters
One of the theories behind the flawed polls in 2016 that missed Trump’s strength in the electorate was the concept of the “shy Trump voter.” These were voters who were embarrassed by the fact that they supported Trump and, therefore, would not admit it publicly. And, they wouldn’t even admit it to pollsters. As result, Trump’s vote was undercounted by the pollsters.
To be fair, there is a logic to this theory. I know I would be embarrassed to admit that I support a stupid, corrupt, misogynistic, racist for president. But I think the theory is mistaken in that I would expect that most Trump voters live in a Fox News bubble of like-minded people. It’s part of the “great sort” of Americans that has resulted in most people gathering in communities that think like them.
I would also suggest that most Trump voters that I’ve observed are not shy about their support of their Dear Leader. Trump rallies don’t seem to attract shy people.
In fact, I think the opposite is true. I would propose that, in this election, there will be a lot of shy Biden voters. I suspect that many people who don the MAGA paraphernalia are having second thoughts. Particularly those in the “high risk demographic,” if you know what I mean. They may be a little queasy about four more years of an Administration that says “We’re not going to control the pandemic.” Or that leaves its supporters literally in the cold after a rally. A rally, by the way, that is clearly a super spreader event.
These shy Biden voters probably live in MAGA world and it is part of their identity. They can’t admit to their friends that they are contemplating voting for a socialist, even one more likely to protect them from the pandemic.
My theory is supported by a Pew Survey that asked Trump and Biden supporters how many of their friends and acquaintances support the other candidate. It turns out that Trump supporters have many fewer in their circle of friends and family who support Biden than the other way around.
Trump supporters are far more likely to have “a lot” of friends who support Trump than do Biden supporters. Add to that the fact that Trump supporters are, by definition, a little crazy. And Trump is getting crazier by the day. Common sense suggests that there’s a greater likelihood that some of his supporters (very few, I admit) will decide to get off the crazy train, than that Biden supporters will get on at this stage. And I suspect that those who disembark won’t tell their friends. Instead, in the privacy of the voting booth, they will vote like their lives depend on it.
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