How Will the Biden Administration Play Out?

Unless the Democrats miraculously win both Georgia Senate seats in the upcoming special election, There will be a Democratic president, a Democratic House and a Republican Senate for the next two years. How will that play out?

I imagine three possible scenarios.

1. Biden and McConnell work out some kind of modus vivendi. McConnell will negotiate in good faith, recognizing that Biden has some kind of mandate that should allow him to at least make his case for various policies and McConnell will allow them to be considered on the Senate floor. Basically, it would be a return to the pre-Gingrich model of legislative policy making. Biden won’t get everything he wants. But good faith negotiating will take place on how to address the nation’s problems.

2. McConnell gives Biden the Obama treatment. Total blockade on legislation, judges, appointments, etc. Biden is stymied. The trench warfare continues. Nothing legislative gets done. The House passes the Biden agenda. The Senate passes nothing. And they Senate launches dozens of investigations of everything to Hunter Biden, Hillary’s emails, the Mueller probe and anything new that comes up. The public is disgusted and both parties suffer. In other words, nothing changes. The 2022 Election is inconclusive.

3. McConnell does the blockade, but Biden governs around him. He presides over the discovery and distribution of the vaccine. It is done professionally and efficiently. He addresses problems administratively through executive orders. Stuff happens on climate change. Relations with other democracies improve and we become more assertive toward all of Trump’s friends, Putin, Xi, Erdogan, etc. The public is reminded what it means to have a competent president and support for the Republican Party declines dramatically. The Democrats win the Senate in 2022. Biden is celebrated for his competent and compassionate approach to governing.

I’ve tried to set the odds for each of these approaches, but really can’t. It’s total guess. Approach number 1 would be best for the country. Number 2 would be the worst and number 3 would be the best for the Democrats.

We shall see.

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